OTW #62: Double the S&P with...alcohol?, Free resources, Oil could rise 52%, & more.
Important financial stories to check out over the weekend
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1. Double the S&P 500 with…alcohol?
The S&P 500 returned an impressive 158% over 10 years, but one asset nearly doubled that performance.
It wasn’t gold.
It wasn’t real estate.
It was rare whisky (also spelled “whiskey,” depending on where it was made).
Visual Capitalist analyzed the 10-year performance of various luxury goods and then compared those returns to the S&P 500. Here’s the full list:
Antagonist’s take
I don’t know anything about rare whisky, but I do appreciate the value and importance of investing across various asset classes. While buying and holding luxury goods isn’t a viable strategy for most investors, there are several other ways to diversify your portfolio outside of stocks.
The simplest method is to follow the Papa Bear portfolio, which I’ve written about many times. It’s quick, free, and works with any size account (as long as your broker allows fractional shares).
For a more customized, hands-on approach, consider our Antagonist Blend Portfolio. Next week, I’m going to announce a new position that’s poised to profit from a beaten-down asset. To receive that recommendation, sign up for a free trial.
2. Oil prices could rise 52%.
The energy sector is surging again, but Tavi Costa’s analysis suggests there’s plenty more growth ahead. That’s good news for your energy stocks but bad news at the pump.
Energy equities are leading the way, and oil prices are likely to follow.
These stocks are now above the Russian-invasion levels in 2022.
If they serve as a roadmap for oil prices, it implies a 52% appreciation from current WTI prices.
Source: Tavi Costa on X
Antagonist’s take
Regardless of how hated oil companies are, the world is nowhere near ready to ditch fossil fuels altogether. Projected demand coupled with shrinking supply means that we’ll likely see sustained energy sector outperformance for years to come.
For an extensive report of why this is true, check out the 2-part article that I published last year:
3. Free investing resources.
Brian Feroldi provided a list of 9 free investing resources. These include stock screeners, sites that track the activities of fund managers, company filing databases, and more.
Antagonist’s take
Depending on where you are on your investing journey, some of Feroldi’s recommendations will be more helpful to you than others. Nevertheless, it’s definitely worth checking out the entire list.
If you’re a beginner, Investopedia and Yahoo! Finance should be on your short list. I’ve been investing for 25 years, and I still regularly visit these sites.
4. Warning to chocolate lovers!
If you love chocolate, you might want to stock up now.
Cocoa prices have risen so much that they’re now more expensive than copper. That’s the first time this has happened in 2 decades (source: Substack note from
).The Wall Street Rollup doesn’t see prices cooling off anytime soon either:
Unfortunately, there’s no timeline on when this will resolve, so this could be a headwind for confectionaries for the foreseeable future. West Africa is usually 75% of cocoa supply, and it will take nations like Brazil and Ecuador a few years to increase supply by planting and ramping up production. While confectionaries have hedges in place through this year and next, eventually this could hurt profits. This may mean large chocolate companies like Hershey are going to hike prices further or lower portion sizes in order to deal with the costs. So while the rate of change in cocoa prices may cool, your sweet tooth should be expecting a pricier chocolate bar later this year.
Antagonist’s take
Even if you don’t have a sweet tooth, it’s worth watching cocoa prices and other commodities. If they continue to rise, it won’t be long before we see prices increase in other categories as well. That’ll make the Fed nervous and likely crush investors’ hopes of interest rate cuts.
Last thing...
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Thank you for reading, and have a great weekend!
Jason Milton
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